The RNG Problem in Tanks

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Why anon, why? If you're a mathguy or mathgirl you should be taking credit... or at least posting with a recognizable name we can refer to.Your about about the Birds and the Ji's is well taken and the way it's presented is perhaps slightly deceptive since yes, ANY combination similar to that would stand out, not just that particular combination. The boy band Chi-Ha crew only drew my attention to this though. My main concern isn't how many hit singles they produce but how many times they hit the tiny rock in front of my target instead of the target itself. My math gets a little sloppy around the radial since I'm not particularly skilled in Trigonometry, and do even more poorly combining it with Calculus. Is that part of it terribly off?
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Conversely, it really sucks to get grouped with platoons of terrible players as that almost guarantees that you're going to be worse-off than average. If you have 3 or 4 guys in your team with 40% winrates you're probably looking at a 11/12 - 15 balance.
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Huh. That's a rather interesting and enlightening post. I used to play solo, achieving a 56% win rate. I was just barely scratching 56.5% (visible 57%) with little to no progress when I started platooning with other players. My win rate quickly shot up to 60% and is still moving upward at a decent pace. The numbers I've observed seem to be about in line with your quick calculations, at least from a cursory (and admittedly untrained) eye.
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I'm glad to see I'm not the only one that begins to get concerned when I see the opposing team pull into an early 3 kill advantage. Especially if those three dead on my team are all scouts.
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A lot of the extreme winrate guys in WoTs do tank companies.If they use a grille, kv-1s, VK3601, hellcat, and to a slight degree a t-50 (though the t-50 is quite good pug). Then generally they are a Tank Company player.These companies are generally more team organized meaning a standard good player when paired with ~10-13 other good players will generally win more often as tank companies are either extremely noobish or well organized.I'm unsure if clan war battles are included into the win %.
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What amuses me most is that players expect random generators give you about equal amount of good and bad luck in one match.What proves that random is truly random, is the thing that it can sometimes give you long good luck or bad luck streaks. And we are even pretty blind for the good luck shots unless they are ridiculously lucky.
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The math also shows how terrible you have to be in order to be a 45% player, which is the force disadvantage from a pure 14 vs 15 fight. anyone lower than 45% has to be pretty much actively sabotaging your team. Note these players are not as as malicious as you think, you can do harm to your team by being combat ineffective, by leading teammates to their deaths, by blocking the shots/routes of your allies, and very importantly making it seem on the mini-map that your position is stronger than it actually is, ever went to go flank an enemy push, only to discover what by the time you are in position, all of your teammates holding the line have gotten themselves killed?. I unashamedly use the XVM mod, and because of it, I can take the strengths of players into account when judging the balance of forces in a battle.
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I remember a direct hit at range while on the move with the Howitzer on the Cruiser Mk.II Only did it once and I don't expect it to happen again any time soon. I typically expect most shots to land in the first ring because more than 50% of the deviation falls within that circle, by definition. Human nature is of course to focus on the bad things typically to the exclusion of the good. I've had just as many matches where the enemy steamrollers my team in a way that only random assist can manage as I have victories.
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First of as a programmer there might be a grain of truth in this.the reason is that most random numbers used in computers are not random. they are derived from a seed and that seed not only be expected and predetermined its not very random if you draw numbers very very fast.the best solution to this problem is use a list of random numbers pre generated supplied by a 3ed party statistic company.There is also models that make the rand() function more "random" then its right now but real random its not.but the problem with hitting and not hitting is not the real issue.this is how it works (I imagine)* the server is handling the aiming the client smooth the scoop this means your targeting retina you see is not the 100% correct one. * there projectile is lunched in a balistic arc depending on the shell this will cause you to think your going to hit but your not in long ranges.* the aim is normalized and modified by your crew skills ... remember below 75% you get a penalty at <75 you get a bonus.* primary skills modify the result.* remember shell traveling time ... shoot where they are about to be not where they are.so yes there might be a issue with RNG but a big issue no.
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You're thinking 2-dimensionally with regards to the reticule and the target. Your trajectory, when including the random deviation, actually forms a ballistically curved cone-like shape and the reticule on your target represents a slice of that cone at that range (this is much more obvious to artillery drivers who get elliptical reticules/slices of their trajectory cone because of the angles they're firing at). What's likely is that your ballistic trajectory cone intersects the rock when it is much narrower, so the chances of strikes are far higher.

In real-life games, such as Football or Buzkashi, there are a great number of factors that influence the game's outcome. Individual player skill, teamwork, physics, weather conditions, and many other factors all vie to determine victor. Some of these factors—such as a stiff wind in the wrong direction—can even imbalance the contest. Fairness in competition involves neutralizing as many of these imbalancing factors as possible. But what happens if the laws of physics decide not to apply themselves impartially?

Enter the Random Number Generator

There is no choice but to rely on a random number generator of some kind in a computer simulation involving any variable number. While the rules implemented in the game ultimately determine what happens, any factor of randomness has to come from somewhere. Random number generators are programs used to create pseudorandom numbers, and they are at the heart of determining which shots hit, if they penetrate, and anything else involving a range of outcomes that the player can't directly influence. The primary concern in any such generator is just how random the values are. A measure of randomization is important in preventing a series from becoming predictable. This is where math comes in.

It’s how you miss that matters

We can determine, with a little mathematical knowledge, what the chances are for any outcome to happen in a truly random environment. When repeating patterns arise, however, we can also prove that there are flaws in the system itself. I’m not talking about five coming up on rolled dice three times in a row, though. That is perfectly normal even in random systems. In fact, five could come up every time in a sample of arbitrary length and still be perfectly “random.” This is why statistical models typically deal in hundreds of thousands or even millions of trials.

For example, there are exactly 20 Chinese given names and 69 Chinese surnames for crewmen on the NA WoT server as of writing. This is assuming that the name format is westernized. If these names apparently come straight from the RNG without weighting, the chance that a Chinese crewman has the given name Daosheng should be 1:20, and the chance that they have the surname Ji should be 1:69. This is where combinatorics comes in. To use gambling as an example: The chance of a single, balanced 6-sided die roll coming up six is exactly 1:6, and the chance of rolling 2 sixes consecutively is 1:(6x6), or 1:36. To return to the Chinese tank crews, the chance of three given names in a crew coming up Daosheng is 1:(20x20x20) or 1:8000. I have had exactly 3 Chinese tank crewmen named Daosheng, so this begins to look suspicious to me. Perhaps I’m just lucky. This anomaly isn’t proof that something is not right, so let's investigate further.

The chance of getting two Jis on a crew of four is 1:(69*69) or 1:4761. The chance of getting three Daopengs and two Jis is 1:(8000x4761) or approximately 1:38,088,000. At this point, I’m thinking I should play the lottery more often. This is a very specific example, but the math holds for any repeated names, not just Daopeng and Ji. You have the same chances of getting three Feis and two Lis randomly on the same crew. The important part is that they are three-of-four matches on the 1:20 and two-of-four matches on the 1:69. This indicates to me that World of Tanks' RNG is prone to trends. Trends are bad in an RNG.

Combinatorics do make things a little more complex, but it isn't a problem if five comes up three times in a row in a sequence of random numbers between one and ten. The issue is if five keeps coming up three times in a row significantly more often than other numbers do. I’m not concerned that I missed five times in a row. I’m concerned if those five misses all appeared to hit the exact same pixel more than one standard deviation away from center. That’s very unlikely!

Where am I? What Plane/Mech/Tank/Ship am I in?