Odyssey Moon Material Review

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Decryptors are now useful on modules, allowing inventors to produce 3-4 times the amount of modules per T1 BPC copy. I think this a very under looked component of the over supply we're seeing on T2 modules right now. Take Cov Ops cloaks, for instance. While they use the new reactions as part of their materials cost, the fact that you can now churn out 4 times the amount you could prior to the patch is pushing these modules to their lowest prices in over a year.
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I don't agree, but I haven't the numbers to back up my argument. Though your examples are the corner cases where I'd have promoted decryptor use before Odyssey changed things. Cloaks are a segment that is very tough to supply in volume due to the ridiculous copy times and high BPO cost. Since they are best produced in 1-runs (like ships), it only makes sense to use decryptors to increase yield.Also, with exploration so much more popular these days, the volume of supply is pushing down the price of decryptors to near trivial levels. This may be the larger driver than the new decryptors themselves.
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Great write-up. Thx!
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Valid point Locke, but what I've seen is every module that I invent on a regular basis has dropped like a rock, and I can now use decryptors to maximize per BPC copy profit (where it wasn't profitable before). 425 Rail II's are selling at a loss now, with a staggering volume on the market. Granted, this is partly due to the Fountain war and CFC's inability to welp enough of the Baltec fleets, but what I'm seeing is an apparent across the board drop in profit from the small sample of modules I've invented for years.It's essentially an oversupply scenario: if I use ME-5/PE -2 decryptors, I get a higher success rate per BPC copy, and the batch builds in roughly the same time, but with 14 runs instead of 10. Get enough people doing that, and you have oversupply, which is what I believe we're seeing. Add in the stupidly cheap price of meta mods, and you can get essentially 100% results on invention runs, further reducing T2 BPC cost.I looked at decryptors with cloaks a while back, and never found them profitable for the effort pre-Oddysey. Maybe I was doing it wrong...
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I think oversupply is a symptom, not the root cause. Traditionally, there is a doldrum in playing between mid July and the start of September. The CFC war in Fountain delayed its onset, but there's no stopping vacation season in August, and the draws of OOG during summer. I think we're actually seeing a contraction in demand and that overzealous suppliers overshot their bubbles since the CFC war came to such an abrupt and neat end.Fear not though, as school starts in earnest and the fall approaches, I am sure the balance will reset again. Supply side tends to dramatically overshoot and undershoot when demand flips dramatically.
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So much graph porn.<3
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I don't believe that moon abundance affects yield at all?
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Moon products contribute < 10% value to the a lot of T2 modules (if you consider only the raw moon product value).In aggregate, a large fraction of the moon products are ending up in ships that are relatively independent of what null-sec doctrines are calling for (bombers, command ships, logi, and jump freighters). While this might be different from 18 months ago, the changes over the last 12 months have been minimal. The price changes due to Odyssey are almost completely independent of the changes between T1 and T2 ships.The analysis of the change in R64 supply is relatively straightforward given that CCP told us exactly how many new moons there would be. The analysis of the change in demand is obviously much more difficult, but had you analyzed how the change in component recipes propagated through to changes in overall moon product demand, you would have correctly predicted that Dysprosium would come out on top, instead of Neodymium.
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I also think abundance doesn't affect yield. It was intended to be something for T2 moon harvesters but that never got iterated in to the game.
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IIRC, you can use 2 moon miners on the same mineral if the abundance is more than 1.Don't quote me on that though.
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Pretty sure there can only be 1 moon miner on a POS?Edit: I stand corrected.
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No one miner per type. If there is titaniumx2 and silcatesx1. You can mine 1 titanium and 1 silicates. The second titanium is unmineable. There can be silicatesx3 on one moon and you can still only mine 1 silicate.
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No. I have 3.
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It depends. Some moons have 2 materials on them that I have seen. I guess it is possible to have 3. It is also possible to have double quantity on some materials and an advanced harvester or double harvesters pulling 2x the normal amount per hour.
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Grid and CPU are your restrictions, you can have several.
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What about decryptor changes on T2 products?
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Decryptors modify the resultant BPC. So, though there are new decryptors, I think the net effect is very very small. Only ships have "waste" on T2 components (on modules, T2 components are "extra materials"), and large ship producers are probably sticking with their existing decryptors. Frigates are the only realm where I think the change is measurable, and I would be willing to bet consumption was decreased due to Parity decryptors outclassing Augmentation and Symmetry.Also, without a reliable way to chart on the market which items were built with which decryptor, it would be impossible to say with a high degree of certainty what was going on.
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On second review, I did overstate moon contributions to T2 modules, but not by the margin you suggest. I'm finding that most products range in the ~25% by cost bracket, and top out at 50% by cost. This was calculated using component build cost/total build cost.As for wrong bets, if I had put the same analysis as this article into my pre-Odyssey speculation article, I probably would have reached your conclusion on Dysprosium. Unfortunately, I didn't have the time or resources then to do that depth of analysis.
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Why are you saying there is an advanced harvester? There is no advanced harvester.
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I think that is generally true, however with larger ships I would expect to see decreased T2 component use, if you go with high ME. Decryptor prices have tanked which should reduce ship prices due to lower invention costs. I honestly haven't looked at T2 ship building for years because the margins aren't that great. I like the analysis you provided. I only wish I could get my hands on the market simulator that I know some goon wrote his thesis on. :tinfoil:

This report is meant to represent a significant 120d view of moon materials on the market.  Charts stop before the HAC Change Proposal from CCP Rise.

Moon resources represent the primary conflict driver in null security space. Though the feature might be polarizing, the fact remains that moons provide a life-blood resource to the entire EVE universe, and provide reasons to fight over static resources. The case is obvious, as Marlona Sky wrote, the CFC vs TEST fight in Fountain was all about moons.  

Odyssey introduced three big shake ups to the moon supply line

  1. An additional 227 R32/R64 moons were added to the game.

  2. T2 components had their materials adjusted.

  3. New Metamaterials were added.

I wrote some predictions right before Odyssey launched, and with the CFC vs TEST fight in Fountain coming to a close, it’s an excellent time to see what has happened to the game as a whole because of these changes.

The Moon Product Life Cycle

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For those unfamiliar, the road from raw moon material to T2 item or ship is long and complex. With such a convoluted supply line, it is nearly impossible to locally source the entire thing as a player or organization. Also, moon materials can only be mined in <0.4 systems in known space.

Furthermore, every rare material can be replaced through a process called alchemy. If any single product becomes particularly scarce or valuable, a secondary material can be substituted. This process is significantly less efficient than direct reactions, but if prices climb to astronomic levels, alchemy provides a “relief valve”.  Alchemy was part of what broke OTEC’s stranglehold on Technetium. Also, alchemy broke the monopolies on the rarest materials like Dysprosium back with Dominion.

The end destination for 99% of moon products will be T2 modules and ships. In relation, 40-90% of a T2 product’s value will come from those moon products. This means that any change to supplies, prices, or availability of moon products will be reflected almost entirely inside the T2 market. Also, since moons materials are going exclusively into T2 products, these fluctuations tend to have very little effect on other products such as T1, PI, rigs, or T3.

In the end, there are two major forces driving T2 and moon products. From the demand side, T2 metas in PVP and PVE drive demand for finished products, which in turn drive need for moon supplies. From the supply side, null sec wars and logistics drive the root supply, controlling the final price of T2 products. Though reverberations take some significant time to move through the system, at the end of the day, these two forces are inexorably tied.

Electrical engineer by day, hard core industrial player, 10th level black belt with a spreadsheet, and aspiring app developer by night. Can be found in the #tweetfleet as @HLIBindustry