How Dust 514 Can Help EVE

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The problem with this is that upon launch, DUST will have zero impact on the game, and thus there won't be any incentive for lucrative contracts. CCP has stated that they are wary of tying the economies together upon launch, too.Unfortunately, the ISK that disappears in DUST will be ISK the DUST players grind themselves. They get ISK just for playing matches.
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This article makes a few massive assumptions.Firstly, it assumes that everyone of the 50k players is in the top line equipment at all times to make that 200k ISK loss. This is very, very highly unlikely. I'd be willing to bet that figure is less than 10%. Fuck, I'd be willing to be it's less than 1% but yeah - it sure as hell won't be 100%. I'd be willing to bet most players will be breaking even, regardless of contracts from EVE Online alliances.Which brings me on to my second point. This article presumes that large entities in EVE are going to give enough of a fuck about what happens in Dust to sink that much ISK into it. If you are, for example, CFC, why would you be willing to invest 10s of billions of ISK into players in Dust? If you are turning a net gain as you suggest of 24 trillion a month into a net loss of around 4 trillion a month throughout new Eden, why the fuck would players in EVE Online bother? There is literally nothing to be gained.If your numbers are right, the EVE Online - Dust link is basically fucked. Thankfully, your numbers are way out.
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His numbers are more of an example of a possible top-end than a THIS IS WHAT IT WILL BE gospel truth, especially since it's a top end estimate from assuming that all the players play 24 hours a day. So yes, actual numbers would be smaller, considerably so at the start as the only link will be FW.If it proves successful and expands in various certain ways to nullsec and highsec, however, the sink could grow quite large.
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That part is tied into how Dust will be used to help control system sovereignty. The eventual goal is to make it so that to hold sov easily, you will _have_ to work with Dust people to hold the planets. The more space you hold, the more help you'll need to keep it. At least, that's the plan.
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You hold sovereignty ultimately to make ISK, yes? I mean, when you strip away all the BS, that's the 'point'. The numbers above and what you are alluding to is that to hold sovereignty, you'll need to lose ISK overall. New Eden will lose ~4 trillion a month. That simply doesn't work.
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He is saying that if everyone in Dust uses top line gear, the sink is 4t a month from New Eden net. That is based on 100% of Dust using top line equipment. That 100% figure is nonsense. If there is to be any sink whatsoever, based on the figure above, over ~86% of Dust players would need to be using top line gear. Again. purely going of his figures. Again, this is abject nonsense. Look at any other MMO whether it be Planetside or WoW or whatever. No matter who is paying for the shinies in game, 86% of players are not running around in top line gear.The article is pretty poorly written in terms of fact tbh. Either his numbers are wrong and Dust simply can't be an ISK sink for EVE or his numbers are right in which case, why would entities in null care about holding space which actively loses them ISK?
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This will depend on how well ccp creates a demand in eve for the supply of dust players we will receive shortly. If most of eve receives no benefit from investing in the dust resources it will not serve as much of an isk sink. I look forward to seeing how well ccp will do to entice us into caring about dust.
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Again, top end estimate. Actual sinks will be much lower, if for no other reason than no one's playing 24 hours a day; if it's poorly written it's because it doesn't make it clear that it's a theoretical maximum.I watched the video clip, and I agree with him that it may be what CCP intends. Whether they bring it off remains to be seen.
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You are missing the point. Any sink which means it is costing you ISK through Dust overall net to own space in EVE Online simply isn't going to work. It renders holding sovereignty pointless. See how easy it is to get people to alarm clock for good space in New Eden when you know there is nothing to be gained for holding the space in the first place.Yes it's a theoretical maximum but 20t ain't a lot less than 24t. It's very close actually. And at 19.9t, it's not actually a net sink from the perspective of EVE Online.
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"Not a net sink."A sink is a sink, just like a faucet is a faucet, only by taking them all together can one consider whether it's a net sink or a net faucet. His numbers could be off by 80% and it'd still sink over 4T isk a month out of the game. That's not insignificant.CCP can arbitrarily add all kinds of reasons for players to want to pay dust players. Allow DUST players to be paid to destroy or interdict PI on planets. In nullsec, make it so planetary control affects military and industrial level in systems, in addition to being able to use it to soften up for, or harden against, an invasion. The FW link is obvious already, since they're going with that for the start, and I'm sure there are plenty of other novel reasons that CCP could give us to care. Whether the sink is large enough to be a net sink or not is basically irrelevant, since at this point, any new sinks are a Good Thing™. Make that your takeaway, instead of the admittedly hyperbolic example the article presents.
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You are of course correct. If Dust sinks some ISK from EVE Online, that can only be a good thing.I just think the numerical examples presented in this piece are awful and without any basis in research or truth. I think you should have written this piece Mynnna - you seem to have a far better grip on it ;)
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Kitt, as a corpmate,HoN, WoT, few of the biggest F2P games out there have a constant 50k players, and these are PC games. How much do PC's outnumber PS3's? I'd imagine on a large scale. You expect 50k players from a console background? Unrealistic.And the numbers? Fiction.Dust 514 just won't make the dent in ISK flood/drain.So lay off the crack, we're putting you on rehab from all of our shitposting.
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Wrong, pi, sov, and dust players will be able to manufacture hopefully on planets. I would say its a big impact
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Firstly, he ballparked at 50k concurrent players, and if the number is higher, then the average equipment per player to reach the BALLPARKED number.. is more distributed between the players. Your actually arguing something that was for sake of an argument, not fact. Fail #1Secondly, please try to remember your comments as Soveriegnty warfare will HAVE to be hand in hand with space warfare. Otherwise your planets are going to become warp locations that could become as hostile as an enemy pos. Only an idiot would leave a bastion of enemy forces inside their own territory untouched. Fail #2And third? Are you in a better position or holding of immaterial numbers that you can maintain a condescending tone without sounding like jackass that takes an example as literal? Fail #3
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Sovereign Nullsec is already barely profitable next to Empire, and once the latest moon material tweak works through the system fully there's precious little reason to live there beyond bragging rights. Introducing on top of that a 'Dust Tax' where you have to fork out to PS3 FPS players to defend your region for you isn't going to fly.
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As a very involved member of the Beta who's had several meetings with people from CCP and chats about this very subject off the Beta forums and prying eye's i think you'd be very silly to dismiss those numbers.
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You'll actually find that Dust will have industry in it at some point in the future and that will destroy the obvious ISK sink. However, for the time being Dust will be a considerable ISK sink and i don't think CCP will introduce Industry into Dust until it's taken a significant volume of ISK away from the game.
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Wrong, there will be no manufacturing in Dust on release, There will however be a link with EVE FW and Dust will play a reasonable enough role that it will be used and not ignored.
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The numbers make a lot more sense than you know. You'll be eating humble pie in a few months.
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Which is why I hope that they don't integrate it before first fixing nullsec. Oddly enough I have a few ideas on that...
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Because I'm not in the dust beta and so wasn't necessarily privy to the sources he'd mentioned. Believe me, I perked up when he started talking about it, but it was written by then. ;)
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Most of the players I talk to, run with 200-250k dropsuits.32 players, losing 200k a death, average 10-20 deaths in a serious matchis 80 million isk a GAME.Plus tanksplus dropshipsplus LAV'splus installationsplus MCC's that get destroyedplus warbarges (fuel?)plus the ships that will get destroyed because of wars that break out in space while people try to orbital strikeplus....you get the picture.
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It will take time before DUST makes it worthwhile for the money hoarders to start spending money, but why would CCP spend all this time and fuss over a side game that doesn't affect EVE? The bigger assumption is that DUST will *NOT* affect EVE in any meaningful way.It may take a year or two to get running, but the goal is not mediocrity... the goal is to push the boundaries of gaming.
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A great read.
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I would think that CCP would not ignore the manufacturing capabilities of planets. Might not be on release but i wouldnt be surprised to see it at all. CCP mentioned that dust players would be able to have a source of income other than contracts and this may be it
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If I had to guess, I'd say factional warfare DUST operations would give you an ISK payout creating ISK into the game. I would imagine however that for 0.0 DUST operations there would be no such empire NPC sponsorship, and the contracts can and will be very big. If I'm in charge of a power block and I want sov, the DUST Mercs I hire are all gonna have the best shit you can buy. Plus everyone is going to be driving a big ass mofo of a tank for every respawn. <-- That is the only DUST equivalent of blobbing right? Since NPC market supplies this gear for now, that ISK is destroyed, thus curbing inflation.If I'm a DUST player, I'm gonna want major power block sponsored matches so I can roll around in tanks all day and not have to scratch and claw for small amounts of ISK from the NPC factions. I think it will balance itself out to an extent with good players gravitating towards each other and inevitably fighting each other in 0.0 matches while pubbies will stick to factional warfare matches.
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By your theory, a lot of isk will be taken out of EVE. Does this mean that PLEX will be 200-300 M isk instead of the nearly 600 M isk like it is now?
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From what I can tell, anyone can make contracts to these new dusters. However, the only ones that will actually need to are the large sov entities (and i don't really understand how the FW part of dust will work) because they will need the dusters to grind the planets for them. But the larg sov entities will always have tons of isk, and will probably form Dust corps of their own in order to grind these planets. So it makes me wonder how lucrative Dust contracts will actually be, and whether or not this will do anything to inflation.Is there any word yet on whether or not eve players will be manufacturing Dust mods in the future? Because then that will be even less of a sink.
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That depends. An overly large amount of liquid isk in the economy does not, on its own, lead to an increase in plex prices. There are other factors involved too. Perhaps I'll write an article on it someday.
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I'd love to see Dust evolve to a point, where Players can install modules on a planet that change the system so that it has a similar effect to a wormhole (increase or decrease resistances, small or large turret damage etc)the knock on effects of this would be sensational from a sov defense/attack POV.Imagine paying people to change system dynamics just before you jump into a defending fleet.
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Then is the point of Dusk to draw people into eve to finance their DUST activities? lol.
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"why would CCP spend all this time and fuss over a side game that doesn't affect EVE?"Because CCP have a track record for always implementing useful features right?
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If an example is given as a lowball example - a minimum if you will - which he goes to some length to explain that 50k is likely a very short estimate, then hell yes, on an article where the whole point is to use some maths to back up his key point, I am going to call him on it. As I have already stated in previous comments, my basis for experience isn't just the Dust 514 beta (which I have been on for many months now) but other MMOs such as PS, PS2 and even MMORPGs such as GW and the like.I am well aware and have never disputed the fact that Sov warfare will have to go in hand with Space warfare. I have stated that if the numbers in his piece are correct then that can't be the case. Which just goes to show his numbers are way out. I think the key Fail you made here was not reading all of the conversation above before throwing in your 2 cents.
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This. This man right here.
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Good article. Props man. I don't know enough of Dust to discuss any content though. To be honest when I heard it was going to be consoles only I didn't really bother about it at all.
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So, if I get this correctly: 1. Eve is over inflated with isk.2. People playing dust will need to constantly spend isk to play with adequate gear.3. Of course, they need to be able to "easily" generate this kind of isk in order to keep playing. Let's assume that this is done when winning a game so that their overall net worth is slightly increasing on average as time goes by.4. If the dust players buy their stuff from eve players, there is actually more isk inflow into the game. Hence eve isk inflation increases!5. The only way to decrease this isk inflation is if a)Eve players either play dust, or the related eve metagame and spend more isk than they get back from whatever rewards will exist, or b) ccp bots sell most of the stuff thus preventing income generation by eve players.I haven't played dust and may be completely off the mark here, but it seems that we should expect more inflation in eve.Eve players will be happy with the "fresh isk" for a while until they realize that they will have to pay more for plexes...
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Sure they spend 200K a dropsuit, but how many times do they die?My housemate plays DUST and he nearly always makes a profit out of the game he's playing because he doesn't pay 200K a game.DUST is interesting because the better you are, and the less you die, the more money you make at the end. Not because you get paid more necessarily but because you don't have to keep replacing dropsuits.Your assumption of 80 million isk a game doesn't take into acconut the fact that:1) Not everyone uses 200K loadouts, I certainly don't and neither does my housemate because it's not sustainable. Same goes for vehicles etc.2) You've totally not taken into account money generated from actually playing the game. if 32 players make an average of 2 million a game suddenly the game doesn't cost 80 million isk each each game costs 16 million isk each.Personally I'm looking forward to DUST but this article makes a poor argument that it will be a isk sink. Not least because the CSM notes from the summit already say that in FW it will help people capture systems (which means potentially easier LP payouts) and when it eventually gets rolled out to null it will boost PI/industry or something (no fixed ideas yet).As things stand you would only hire DUST mercenaries if it somehow financially benefited you. DUST will only become a isk sink if you fight wars at a material loss, Null Sec entities currently are the only ones who do that and DUST wont interact with Null when it's released.DUST can potentially become an isk sink when it's thrown into Null as you may fund a DUST war to disrupt your opponent's income as part of a greater Sov War. However they need to REALLY get the mechanics right for it to work that way.
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A big thing to understand is that it can be profitable for the participants while at the same time being an isk sink. If it, for example, gave minerals for ISK it would be a net ISK sink.As far as macroeconomy goes, they are not concerned about whether holding it is profitable or not, only about whether it removes or adds ISK to the game.
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@Planeshaper agree with alot of ur points. i think what hive was hinting at is 200K dropsuits for high end corp matches, currently no need to use those in unorganised pub games with randoms but against other corps u wont wanna be running shit gear if the enemy is actually good.
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And the punchline is that once the mechanics are in place, and CCP feels safe that the EVE economy isn't going to implode, things will start to happen fast in New Eden. For the sovholders it will absolutely mean adapt or die.
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Correct. Incentive to invest into Dust players will only be if EVE players can actually make profit from it, one way or the other. Nobody will just sink their ISK in Dust for the sake of it.
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QUOTE: 4. If the dust players buy their stuff from eve players, there is actually more isk inflow into the game. Hence eve isk inflation increases! ENDQUOTEI do not see anyone making tanks, guns, armor, ammo now? Will that change? Otherwise they are buying from NPC.
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Well, we could/should be making them. After all, some are already manufacturing "planetary vehicles".
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An article written by or at least posted by our, uh, "illustrious competitor" sort of confirms everything here - ccp wants DUST to function as a sink for Eve.
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Disregard previous comment, Kitt JT is a visionary, a prophet of the free world who anticipated this shit before CCP announced it.I hereby renounce my accusations and will proceed to :commissar: myself.
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1. I would like to see how much of this ISK goes into highsec. That ISK will never go into DUST nullsec battles and will just be used for market manipulation causing inflation or, at best, sitting in wallet unused.2. I think that the EVE DUST link in 0.0 will be quite underwhelming at start, so well, the article's figures are a bit off.
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that idea would be awesome! A bit too powerful perhaps.
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I expect that most of the items would be produced by EVE players, whille all CLONES would be NPC Sold...
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Your math don't add up. 50k*94=4,7kk - you are assuming every one of those players will play alone on a battlefield?
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Upon launch, DUST will not actually *be* in 0.0. There's no word on when 0.0 or manufacturing will be linked to DUST, but it's safe to assume it's not going to be a month afterwards.
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No. Its a difficult thing to word. An example would be if you have one battle with 24 players a side, you can say that 48 games were played.If you're measuring ISK loss by player, there's no other way to measure the number of games played.
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More like a milllion ISK per 15 minute match, and thats with all training equipment
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The way the video was inserted was weird, couldnt pause/skip around/go to original source.Made it a bit hard to skip to the important part at 26:00 :P

Dust has polarized a large portion of the EVE community. Many people are excited that the EVE universe will be expanding. Others look forward to pounding ‘dust bunnies’ into the dirt. Others still are sceptical of its introduction and fear that a failure on DUST’s part could cripple EVE. In any case, developer time (that we have all helped pay for) has been spent on a different game.  How can Dust improve EVE at a very fundamental level?

Inflation is Rampant

To get the full benefit of this article, watch a small portion of this video from about 26:00 to 29:10. It features a talk on the economy of Eve, given by CCP Eyjo at Fanfest 2012:

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In summary, a lot of instability and inflation in the market right now is due to players having too much ISK. There is simply too much ISK entering the game, and not enough leaving it. The disparity is to the tune of 24 trillion ISK per month.

What I found most intriguing about this small clip was what CCP said about the situation improving. The presenter commented that quarter three of 2012 was expected to improve slightly and that Fanfest attendees would learn about quarter four later. The economy improvements in Q3 could be chalked up to the expected end of speculation and the resulting market stabilization. He may even have been hinting at the technetium nerf. But what would bring such sweeping improvements to the EVE economy in Q4 2012?

Enter: DUST 514

Dust, as I’m sure everybody is aware, is a free to play shooter coming out on Playstation 3 that takes place in the EVE universe. One thing about shooters is that you die. A lot. In a 15 minute match, you can easily die a dozen times, something that would be quite an accomplishment for a capsuleer. Why does this matter? After all, ships dying in EVE isn’t an ISK sink. The materials are lost, but insurance is paid out. The net effect is that PVP in EVE is actually an ISK faucet. How does this differ from DUST? DUST is being launched with exactly zero industrial content. This means that every item is seeded by an NPC. NPC seed orders mean that any time an item is bought (be it a dropsuit, a module, a rifle, or a tank), ISK is actually removed from the game.

These amounts are small in terms of individual transactions. However, there is an old saying that “A thousand pinpricks will make a man bleed.” In the case of Dust, a few thousand players will remove a ton of ISK from the economy. Unfortunately, no article about the economy would be complete without at least a little bit of math, so here it is:

Let us suppose you have 50,000 players playing Dust at any given time. Personally, I think this number is conservative. As a F2P shooter of the quality that Dust should be, I would think there would be many more active players than this at a time. Assuming a day of 23.5 hours, and a 15 minute match time, there is room for 94 matches that that pool of players could play. So each hypothetical player can play 94 matches per day. Remember that we assumed 50,000 players at any given time, not 50,000 total. This means that on a given day, 4.7 million matches will be displayed on a TV around the world.

A little bird told me that players shouldn’t be able to afford the highest tier gear constantly without lucrative contracts, or unless they’re really good. This implies that in any given match, if people are well equipped, there will be a net loss in ISK. This doesn’t mean that Dust players won’t be able to make ISK, it just means that ISK will be coming from EVE in the form of contracts (which is what CCP is expecting and encouraging).

For argument’s sake, we will assume a (very modest) net loss of 200k ISK. If you take that 200k ISK per player, per match, you end up with just over 940 billion ISK per day. Over a 30-day month, that comes to just over 28 trillion ISK. Let that number sink in for a minute. Not only is that value larger than the current faucet to sink disparity, it also happens to be greater than every ISK sink in EVE combined.
So in one very clever move, CCP is not only launching a new game, but they are also helping to fix serious problems in their flagship project. Now, is this all wild speculation? Perhaps. But it is something that is grounded in CCP statements and conservative math.

Regardless of your other opinions on Dust, I think that anybody in tune with EVE’s economy can appreciate why Dust might just be the feature that EVE needs.

 

[name_1]
I have been playing EVE since late 2006, with a preference for nullsec warfare. I am currently a member of Nulli Secunda. In real life, I started a career as a pilot in 2007, and many of my articles discuss both flying, and EVE Online.