The CSM8 Election: An Early Analysis

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Mangala Solaris for CSM8!
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Unfortunate about the WH vote. Too man egotistic fuckers there now to agree on one candidate. Only two even deserve it, and it's clear out of those two who is the more intelligent and mature person to represent us. Just remember, no Mexicans.
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And what about Nathan Jameson btw ?
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Few points, since understandably I've been looking far too much at it.*James has taken your point about Jita Park to heart and not posted there, but it's not a requirement for actual candidacy anyway (at least insofar as I can tell).*Early vote wargaming suggests organized voters (ie null blocs) capture a number of votes pretty much equal to their turnout. Over (or under) representation comes from proportionally representing several tens of thousands of people with just fourteen reps. That said, a consistent presence in the top slots is necessary; someone who gets a bone thrown to them in the form of 14th place might as well be on their own.*Likewise, the fractured vote doesn't hurt the wormhole candidates as much as you'd think. If wormhole voters have half a brain they'll be listing them all in their top 5. The ones with larger first-choice representation will hang around, and the ones with lower first-choice representation will get knocked out, which effectively moves those below them "up"
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Cool writing by a obviously very smart guy! More of it.
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Run. Some. Polls.
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He actually posts there, but with an alt :)
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There may be too many W-Space candidates, but the community is still tight knit enough that there will be high voter participation, and most of those votes will stay within the W-Space candidates. The STV system will likely see one of them elected although I don't see a clear winner among them.I believe there will be a W-Space CSM...but the influence they will have while there will almost certainly not match Two step's.
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Maybe they will do it via the STV System, nobody knows.
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Would really like to see some more "middle-weight" alliances put forth a candidate, but i like the null sec representation.
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I’m in two minds about the CSM. On one hand I’m genuinely in awe of people who essentially take on a 2nd unpaid job for, at best, the love of the game or at worst because they think it gives them some sort of e-fame. The former are heroes, the latter are fools.On the other hand I really don’t see how the CSM is influencing CCPs choices how they develop their product. Maybe that’s the problem with the CSM, CCP don’t spend enough time showing the player base how the CSM has contributed in a demonstrable way to the development process. I’d really like to see CCP, not the CSM, summarise the CSM terms. At the moment it’s all rather vague and unengaging.There seem to be very bright and enthusistic people who want to get on the CSM to have a positive impact on the game, I just hope they don’t get there and find it a massive disappointment.
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Not really a presumption? Though you've definitely proven such a potential presumption correct.
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Unless all of those 800 to 'well over 1000' were new, unique listeners for each and every candidate, then no it's not a relevant format.
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Apparently clauses are a confusing and scary thing in some parts of the world.
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Wormhole space is in no way irrelevant. As of now the larger groups (Polarized., ANGST, etc.) and alot of the smaller groups have decided to endorse Cipreh.
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I think what happened to the WH community was that they were supposed to do some kind of internal primary (hence all the candidates) but then the new voting system was announced and they dropped the plans to do it. Two Step (or any other WH guy that reads this) can feel free to correct if I'm horribly wrong, obv.
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Would everyone voting for everyone really make a difference? Maybe I'm just too thick to have gotten the new voting system, but if none of the W-Space candidates have enough votes to secure a spot based on their specific bloc, then shouldn't none of them win no matter how many votes in total are placed?
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The number of unique listeners for each new show isn't relevant. It's the number of undecided voters who listen to each candidate that is relevant. I would hazard a guess that the vast majority of people who are willing to take the time to listen to interviews haven't already made up their mind - if they had, why bother listening? On the presumption that the vast majority of those 800-1000 are undecided it makes no difference how many they listen to. It is up to the candidate to make a persuasive case to as many of those undecided listeners that they are the candidate for them. Ask Ripard Teg what difference 10 or 20 votes can make to a CSM election.And as I have already stated, the interviews aren't the most important thing by any stretch. But combined with twitter and Jita Park and debates and various other campaigning, they give an overall picture of the candidate. My point being that substantially more people that the author's '400' feel an interview is a part of this process.
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Right, and the unique listeners will tell you how many potential undecided voters you have. If your listeners are largely repeats, it doesn't matter if all 'well over 1000' listeners are undecided voters who will vote in the end, it's still a really, REALLY small number of votes, especially when you consider that the audience isn't necessarily going to have any kind of unified alliegiance to draw on.I'd even argue that podcasts aren't the greatest promotional tool for a candidate trolling for votes to use - when you're selling yourself and trying to paint a picture of yourself, it needs to be as concise as possible, and a sprawling 40+ minute interview with some guy the potential voter probably hasn't even heard of is the exact opposite of that.
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It's somewhat ironic that James 315 will win a seat because he's notorious, and yet the portions of his agenda that have made him notorious have no chance of getting any traction at CCP.
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Oh I see what you are saying. No we have a very, very small number of repeat listeners to each episode - less than 5% in every one. Again I have server stats to back this up. Most people download the episode once and then have it. It 'could' be that some people listen once from one IP address (their home PC) then listen again from another IP (their mobile phone) but I highly doubt that. Very few stream it from the site. So out of 1000 people, say 950 of those are unique listeners at the very least. Sure, it's going to be difficult to get all of them but if you can sway 10% of them to put you 1st or 2nd that's 95 votes closer to your goal potentially. 95 votes really isn't a small number when you have CSM candidates busting their balls to try and get 70, 80, 90 men corps to vote for them, sending countless emails and spending hours in TeamSpeak or Mumble servers. 95 votes for 40 minutes 'work' is actually probably the smallest 'votes:work' ratio you'll get if you don't have an established bloc such as Goons or WHers or whatever behind you.Interesting that you say a 'sprawling 40+ minute interview'. Only one of my interviews has went over 40 (Ripard's), two were 35-40, fourteen were 30-35 and one was just under 30. As far as I am aware no-one has even attempted to interview every single candidate in a short format like this before. Any less than 30mins isn't 'concise' - it's pointless. It's simply not long enough. I guess that's why previous attempts at one-on-one interviews in previous campaigns have been 90mins to 2 hours. If you can find me a single CSM one-on-one interview in Eve history before mine which has been less than 30 minutes, I'd love to hear it. For a candidate to explain who they are in Eve, their platform and then to be asked some questions, you simply can't do that in any less than 30 minutes. And remember, you can listen a lot faster than you can read - a candidate can get more information across in a 30 minute interview than he would in an article at 3 or 4k words which would take substantially longer to read. This is simply down to the fact that we can listen to more WPM than we can read. And to top it all, you can normally listen to a podcast interview while working or gaming or jogging or whatever. This is much harder to do with a written piece. Podcast interviews are a fantastic promotional interview. I am guessing this is why over 75% of announced candidates have already had or scheduled CZ interviews with me.
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Derp. 'fantastic promotional tool' not 'fantastic promotional interview'.
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When I criticize the length of interviews, it's a shortcoming of the podcast format in general, not anything specific you've done. You're right, it'd be pointless to do a shot podcast interview. What I'm saying is that, when trying to sway undecided voters, it's not a great tool to use. People want brevity above all (hence why that dumb Vote Match tool is popular), and a podcast is the opposite of that. If an undecided voter isn't listening to the podcast on their own, you're not going to be able to get them to.You're right in that it's a good votes:effort ratio, but the amount of votes you stand to gain is still very small, and thus not relevant in the scheme of things. That was the point in the first place, not that "you can't get any votes", just "the amount of votes you stand to gain is really small". It's still certainly worth doing (especially because of the effort thing), but you need far, far more to even hope to snag last place in the election.
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your understanding of the new voting system is zero. The whole point is that how many votes in total now matters. If a few thousand wormholers put all and only WH candidates on ballots--in any order--eventually they will filter to a person who will win. Obviously based on two step WHers have enough votes to do this.
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I disagree. It's the best thing about the podcasting format. In 30 minutes you get the information it would not only take hours to read but to actually trackdown via Jita Park or the candidate's blog or twitter or whatever. There is no more efficient, concentrated way to find out about a candidate. If people are genuinely wanting to find out about all about what you stand for in written format, it will take a lot longer to pour over a Jita Park thread and all their blog (if they have one), etc. It'll likely take you substantially longer than 30 minutes for any serious candidate.As for relevance, like I say, go ask Hans how many hours he would spend trying to get a 100 man corp on his side in the CSM7 campaign knowing full well that many a 1/3 or at best maybe 1/2 would actually go vote for him. If a candidate was lowball aiming for, say, 10% of my listeners then that's 95 votes. 95 votes when you are trying to get 1500-2000 is not insignificant in the slightest. Then you consider that there are 10 'pots' of those 95 votes for the candidates to scramble over? That's not irrelevant in the slightest.At the end of the day, if these things are entirely irrelevant, why did someone like Mynnna who all but guaranteed to be elected first not only agree to be interviewed but interviewed first out of all candidates? Sometimes the relevance isn't even just votes - sometimes letting people know who you are and what you are about even if they have no intention of voting for you is very important and entirely relevant. People get an idea of who is going to be on the CSM representing them. People like Trebor and Mynnna realise the importance and relevance of this.
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The fact that you're comparing a podcast interview to a blog or a Jita Park thread shows that you still don't really "get" it. They're not useful either, because they're just as long and information-dense as a podcast. Christ, the entire POINT of bringing up podcasts and blogs and such in this article was to show that THEY'RE NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH TO GET ELECTED.Yes, it's far harder work for a candidate to solicit groups of people in what their own demographic or "consitutency" should be. You can also solicit many corporations, even at the same time, unlike a podcast which amounts to "pray you've got people from your demo listening that actually are open to voting for you". You keep using that 950 out of 1000 number as if you know that new listener=undecided voter willing to vote for said candidate, and that's a huge leap of faith to be taking.As for the whole "the relevance isn't even in votes", you've moved well beyond the scope of what this was even about, which was "how to get elected". You get elected by votes, simple as. Election systems don't give a fuck how nice a guy you are or how open you are with the community. Votes first, everything else massively distant second.
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Go for it Mynnna!
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Just want to point out that Ali Aras is going in as a provi representative, that is a conciderable amount of votes he/she could gather.
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The original quote from the article was this:'A bunch of likes on Jita Park, a popular blog or a podcast interview listened to by maybe four hundred humans, tops, does not an election win.'And he's right. Individually they won't cut it. Collectively, they sure as hell can get you elected. If you presume that taking advantage of all potential vote sources is important then missing one out which could make the difference would be entirely relevant from the position of the voter. A lot of commentators have suggested that certain candidates are hurting their chances of election simply by not being on twitter for example. It's about being accessible and as 'available' as possible.'You keep using that 950 out of 1000 number as if you know that new listener=undecided voter willing to vote for said candidate, and that's a huge leap of faith to be taking.'It's not a huge leap of faith. If I know I am voting for 'Trebor' why am I listening to all the interviews? Some people will of course. But it will be a very small %. When I consider the emails I have received and the comments posted in blog comments as well as the tweets I have had on the matter, the vast majority of people listening to these interviews are there for the taking. I can only presume this is why so many candidates are eager to take part. If a candidate was aiming high - say for 20% of the people who are undecided and listening in. Even if we consider that some of the people have made their minds up you are looking at ~150 votes. Let's say they choose not to do an interview but do all the other 'things' - Jita Park, blog, twitter, etc. Come election day, those 150 votes may be vital.'As for the whole "the relevance isn't even in votes", you've moved well beyond the scope of what this was even about, which was "how to get elected".'Fair point, my bad. It was me who brought up the whole 'relevance' thing and moved the conversation in that direction. My only reason for bringing it up is that even candidates who are all but guaranteed a seat obviously consider taking part in these things important. If nothing else, there is the potential to deny someone else a vote.
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Votes still only "count" towards one candidate in STV. Since there were 59,109 votes last year, we know that a candidate needed at least 3,942 votes to guarantee a spot. Since TheMittani got 10,058 votes, the CFC could have only guaranteed one additional position under STV. Only Two Step also got above the threshold to guarantee him a spot.So from the first place votes, we can estimate that Darius III would have fallen off the list in favor of an additional CFC candidate. Beyond that, we can't tell what would have happened, which is the point both mynnna and Xander were making. 1500 votes definitely doesn't guarantee a spot, but we will never know how the second choices of the remaining votes could have changed the outcomes.Your analysis is almost totally wrong. There is almost no situation in which the CFC takes half of the CSM.
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BlueMajere is running for the HBC.
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James 315 withdrew his candidacy for CSM. I'm heartbroken.
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Could it be that they get a realistic view into the world of game development and their fantasies are shattered?
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Here is my one duh/noob moment for the day. As this will be my first CSM election as for various reasons, I was inbetween toons and accounts during previous elections, can anyone point me to a posting or thread that covers how the CSM elections work, how I vote and when election day is?
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Why is Jack Gates being suppressed? He's obviously a superior candidate!
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James 315 has withdrawn from candidacy for CSM8. I feel lost and sad.
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I am an ex member of CFC and have to say that although we recieved direct alliance-mails that stated their case, we were no more demanded to vote mittani as anyone else we liked. theres no list. thats ridiculous
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They will be explaining this new system in a devblog prior to voting open.Or they'd better be, anyway.
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Nullsec collectively taking half the CSM is certainly feasible, though. All it would take is nullsec putting forward half the total votes cast.
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Mynnna, James315 has decided to not run because of NDA lockdown, isn't this something that you should also consider since if CCP does something st00pid *cough*FW*cough* you won't be able to game the system for risk of NDA ban-hammer and legal repercussions?
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Revealing noobishness. In CMC politics, we're willing to write off blogs and dedicated forums as irrelevant - does the same apply to nullsec politics? "Nice propaganda, loser" → "Nice damage control, virgin"is a pretty common exchange but I don't know that enough people give a shit for biased battle reports or whatever to be effective. Does TMC even pull the numbers the be worthwhile as a hypothetical spin machine? Honestly curious here.I know even the most uninformed citizen knows when the POTUS sticks his dick in an intern but it just doesn't scale down like that.Is it more that the stakes are lower, like 400 votes is a joke while 200 more dudes in your fleet is nothing to sneeze at?
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what the hell is cmc
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How many more trillions of isk do I really need?
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please deposit 25 billion into phigmeta's account.I need a SuperCarrier
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Not this year. If they did, we would have seen it by now. I can easily name a good handful of individuals that are well-qualified, but they haven't chosen to step up and even if they did, I fear its too late in the game to build the type of unified support needed to elect a candidate. The climate we have today following two expansions worth of improvements to the feature lacks the systemic boredom that provided all the diplomatic grease I needed to secure a cooperative voting front.And to really top it off, a prospective candidate would have to consider the fact that not all of my votes came from Faction Warfare pilots in the first place, I know for a fact that there were many that voted for me not because of my merits but simply because they saw efficiency in a Faction Warfare candidate serving during a year they knew CCP would work on FW. Luckily for them, gambling on a stranger paid off and I proved to be the real deal, but no one can use that advantage this time around. There's no sugar-coating the fact that CCP will (and has been encouraged to) work on some other sectors of the game that are also in badly need of repair. Our peak in terms of developer attention has very likely come and gone with Dust514 integration being the notable exception (along with a few more fixes I'm still lobbying for.- but that would be implemented after I step down.)
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This will be an easy enough hypothesis to verify. If CSM8 ends up with some solid folks on it (and it will), they'll be able to communicate clearly whether things are looking up or down with CCP. Just ask this same question in a couple of months. If there's some awful monstrous thing going on inside CCP that scared all of CSM7 away, you'll hear about it. And if there isn't a bunch of rat poo in the sausage factory? Yeah, you'll hear that too. At the very least I know Mynnna will be elected, and he certainly isn't going to have any problem telling it straight either way. This tinfoil about the deep dark CSM7 secret that sent us all heading for the hills will be cleared up soon enough.
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Good. He deserves it. I'm also proud to support Trebor's bid for re-election, his leadership and experience have been invaluable many times throughout the year. CSM8 would be a lesser institution without someone on board during the tough times that has not only seen it all but knows how to get results from CCP the way that Trebor does.
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Marc was going to run (in fact he made a Marc for CSM thread) but RL intervened.
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I will be shocked if I get into the top 7, but I shan't complain if you're right and I'm wrong.Seriously though, I won't be able to compete with official bloc candidates like Mynnna and Banlish. Luckily, both Mynnna and Banlish are excellent candidates who deserve to be elected on their own merits, but that massive first-vote support advantage is not one that I have. However, it doesn't matter as much with the new voting system; there's no "first 7" vs "alts" distinction anymore. Only the top 2 slots are differentiated by the 'right' to go to Iceland. The other 12 slots are effectively identical whether you get 1 vote less than the #2 guy, or whether you get 1 more vote than the 15th placed guy.
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Yep, even if you buy into the ridiculous "Trebor wants to turn hi-sec into Trammel!!!" bullshit, it still VERY important that he's on CSM8, because we'll need that process knowledge and institutional experience.
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What kind of a travesty of democracy is a system that allows people I don't like to get elected?!
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And really I just think its pretty chickenshit to pretend to be so afraid of evil Trebor and his "dangerous" ideas that anyone would turn down what has to offer in terms of expertise and work ethic just because he dares to question something they take for granted. It's intellectual cowardice and a poor excuse for trying to undermine one of the most genuine player advocates that has ever sat in the hotseat.
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"I’d really like to see CCP, not the CSM, summarise the CSM terms. At the moment it’s all rather vague and unengaging."Fuck yeah, me too. This is half of the legitimacy question solved right here, and we have enough on our plate doing what we're elected to do that it would be great not to have to go around tooting our own horns at the same time, which always feels cheesy anyways. Imagine for a second if the CSM just had to focus on gathering good input from players and using it to advise CCP, who could use their own developers to highlight in the dev blogs specific CSM advice they felt shaped the feature. It would be worlds away from everyone having to rely on CSM self-promotion that players simultaneously both demand and distrust.CSM7 has been begging to see more public acknowledgement and appreciation of our efforts from CCP this election season in order to drive voter turnout, and I'm anxious to see if things will improve this year as a result.
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Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I wasn't referring to CCP in particular, more that the reality of game dev is nothing like the magical fantasy land that people think it is. The long hours going over implications of solutions to problems, defining what the problem is to begin with, looking at issues from every possible angle with as many perspectives on a problem as there are people in the room, the technical constraints of existing technology vs the time it would take to change said tech, the list goes on.There are some people in the current line up that I have seen evidence of their understanding of the reality already, like Mynnna, but when you look behind the curtains at the show to see how things actually happen, some of the magic is gone forever.That "monstrous thing going on" inside game dev studios is just every day reality in every studio ;)
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I really think CCP need to think hard about why they want aCSM. If they’re not prepared to tell the players the value they believe itbrings to development process why should the players care about it?More importantly why should some players give up their precious free time to take ona 2nd unpaid job that their pseudo employers can’t even be botheredto acknowledge as valuable?
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Thanks to shadowschild we can all sleep safe in our beds knowing the torch of setting oneself alight in flame posts is being held high. Now lower case that 'A' in August.
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What about him
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Translates to unbiased, thanks.
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kwark for lowsec csm
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James315 has bowed out.He looked at the new selection method, and the fact that no one but carebear trebor is running a second time, and smelled a big NDA rat.
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Considering that 'Goons 4x4ing through the sandbox' was what kept me in EVE when I first started, it was a sort of foregone conclusion that I would be voting mynnna this year.Random highsec pubbie reporting in.
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No he isn't running. He is in PL and is endorsing Sala Cameron
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I have heard that were some FW guy interested, which is why i asked. But i do agree that it kinda late in game.
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maximal is a real word, who knew?

First Look: Candidates Of Note

This is our first article about the CSM8 fight on TheMittani.com and not all of the hats are in the ring; we'll take a look at some of the more significant candidates, or who I think at first blush has a hope in hell of winning.

Bloc Candidates

The first rule of being a bloc candidate is denying that you have a bloc behind you in hopes of getting additional votes. However, elections are - as mentioned above- acts of tribal warfare; someone like Malcanis might not consider himself in his heart of hearts to be a bloc candidate, but you bet your ass The Initiative is going to vote for him. Ripard Teg sees himself as a blogger and man of the people, but his real core of votes will come from Rote Kapelle. 

Mynnna: The official Goonswarm Federation candidate; a financial genius. Doesn't need to do anything to get elected, yet is probably one of the best candidates. Will be assaulted nonstop for being GSF-affiliated.

Kesper North: The Gentleman's Agreement candidate; known for a focus on solo PvP. While GENTS might not have been able to get a rep on the CSM under previous voting systems, STV means that Kesper is likely to be the #2 or #3 candidate listed under every GSF vote for Mynnna. 

Malcanis: Not officially a bloc candidate, but an infamously eloquent goodposter on the official forums and a contributor on this site (just like Mynnna and Kesper). He's affiliated with The Initiative, so if he does his homework he should suck up a bunch of Eastern HBC votes. Functionally a bloc candidate as a result; Malcanis is also extraordinarily well-liked across nullsec, so expect to see him in the top-five voter lists even outside the HBC.

Artctura: The Fatal Ascension candidate, with a focus on third party developer tools. Should be in good shape if FA rallies behind him and he gets on the CFC voter guide, which he will. 

Progodlegend: The Nulli Secunda candidate. S2N has never run a candidate before, unless you count Mintrolio for CSM7, which ended up missing the alt slot; it remains to be seen if they can manifest a voting machine, but it's theirs to lose: by all rights, PGL should end up somewhere on the CSM. 

Sort Dragon: The first Pandemic Legion candidate. Sort Dragon is affable and well-liked across nullsec, if PL rallies behind him he should be in good shape. PL has proven their ability to bloc-vote in past CSMs, so he should be an easy top-seven.  

Sala Cameron: The second Pandemic Legion candidate; has an ex-NC history which might win him some additional votes. Most famous for being a hyperaggressive solo Titan pilot dropping on anything that moves. 

Non-Bloc Candidates Who Might Win

James 315: James hasn't formally announced a candidacy by posting a thread in Jita Park, but if he does it is likely that he will be a shoo-in, being wildly popular across nullsec and demonized in hisec. You cannot vote 'against' someone in a CSM election, so the voices of James' detractors are essentially meaningless. I wouldn't be surprised to see many nullsec voting guides including James on their bloc roster.

Trebor: Trebor is the only member of CSM7 to run for reelection, and it's hard to gauge how effective his campaign will be this year. As the only CSM7 returnee, he will bear the burden of justifying CSM7's accomplishments or lack thereof. However, he has built up a solid base of repeat voters over the years; I wouldn't be surprised to see him win again, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him in the low alt slots. 

Ripard Teg: Ripard writes Jester's Trek, which is syndicated on EN24; this makes him a fairly well-known blogger. Does that actually translate into votes? His alliance, Rote Kapelle, has less than 300 characters in it, which means that functionally all of Ripard's votes will have to come from his readers, and readers are not necessarily fans. 

Miscellanea

There's no declared HBC/TEST candidate yet. That's odd, but presumably they'll run someone soon. Whoever they rally behind should get on easily enough. 

We don't yet know who the Russian-bloc candidate will be. UAxDeath isn't running again after the loss of his empire; the fall of Against All Authorities likewise removes Greene Lee. 

There's no unified wormhole vote this time, because Two Step isn't running; the w-space vote is likely to be fractured and thus irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. 

More To Come

As the election season matures, we're going to be gearing up our coverage with more detailed analysis of who has a shot, who doesn't, and who the most facepalm-inducing candidates are (Xenuria and Fon Revenhort are neck-a-neck at the moment). We have a somewhat unusual situation on our staff where several of our writers are CSM candidates that are very likely to be elected, so we have to tread with care. Regardless, the whole affair should amuse. 

Goonswarm Federation CEO, Space Tyrant. Likes yoga, Alaskan Malamutes, bacon, and delegation.