"Organization wins elections. Nullsec blocs are the most organized entities in Eve, because the disorganized ones get destroyed. STV gives voters a roster of candidates to rank ... Your average nullsec voter, motivated by his bloc and their incentives/whipping methods, will fill out the entire ballot based on a voting guide provided to him by his leadership."
"There's no unified wormhole vote this time, because Two Step isn't running; the w-space vote is likely to be fractured and thus irrelevant in the grand scheme of things."
- The Mittani, The CSM 8 Election: An Early Analysis
Make no mistake, this is a message to unaffiliated voters. In particular, unaffiliated wormhole voters.
The Mittani's votes alone would have placed 3 people on CSM 7 if it had used the new STV system: #1, #2 and #13. Add the Pandemic Legion candidates and others that will be on the organized lists of the CFC, HBC and N3 coalitions, to say nothing of the Russians, and you have a recipe for a very heavily sovereign nullsec-focused CSM.
What this means, unaffiliated wormhole voters, is you have a choice. You can go quietly into that good night of irrelevance, blowing off the "Pre-Election" (hereafter: Primary) and getting only one candidate through to the main ballot, or you can attempt to be one of "The Organized" and again show the strength that Two Step's voters did for CSM 7. The CSM's POS change, dreadnaught, and T3 balancing feedback will be nullsec-driven. This time, the CSM election will require more discipline from you for success.
There are two potential ways to do this in the primary:
- Everyone gets behind one candidate and the other four drop out or don't get enough votes to make the final ballot. This means that the lone candidate will certainly make the ballot (and likely the CSM), but many overvotes will be wasted and that one will be the lone wormhole representative of 14.
- Get the maximum number of candidates on the ballot, to ensure that the maximum number of wormhole voters care about the final vote and use the "Two Step stack" method of listing all five (or as many as get in) wormhole candidates at the top of the ballot. This would make it possible, even likely, that two or - at a stretch - three candidates could make the group of 14.
In the new primary rules, each candidate must get 200 votes to get on the ballot. As CCP has outright stated, it is difficult to tell how many characters equals a player, but for sake of argument let's say that 3 characters = 1 account in a wormhole corp (wormholers are notoriously alt-happy, and in our hole I see most with 2-3 accounts). Using that math, let's look at the wormhole candidates using stats from Dotlan. (Full Disclosure: I have publicly endorsed James Arget)
- Nathan Jameson: Talocan United = 632 characters, or 210 votes. Nathan has done a particularly good job of outreach as well, so may get some additional one-off voters or "future wormholers".
- Chitsa Jason: Exhale + Polarized = 116 + 439 = 555 characters, or 185 votes. Exhale's fracture was not contentious, so let's suppose that Chitsa keeps the votes from both of the resultant alliances.
- Cipreh: Existential Anxiety + 1/2 of Transmission Lost = 297 + 217 = 514 characters, or 171 votes. Transmission Lost's fracture, by comparison, was more drama-filled. So let's assume that half of legacy TL doesn't vote for Cipreh.
- James Arget: Sleeper Social Club = 275 characters, or 91 votes. James, however, has some good potential side sources of votes including Kill It With Fire and EVE University.
- Ayeson: Hard Knocks = 259 characters, or 86 votes.
So what does this mean? It means that if you don't act in the primary, you'll be proving The Mittani right. Two step got 4150 votes in the CSM 7 election. The votes above only tally up to 743, meaning that there are over 3000 votes (assuming similar numbers to a year ago) that could be brought to bear to get more wormhole candidates on the final ballot this year.
The Bottom Line (For Wormholers)
- You have 3000+ votes worth of power to bring an outsized wormhole candidate list to the final ballot.
- It is critical that you vote on all of your accounts in the "Pre-Election" Primary March 22-29
- There is nothing to be gained beyond 200 votes for your favorite candidate. A "big win" margin in the primary does nothing to help your candidate in the full election; after 200 it simply siphons off votes that could have gotten another wormholer on the ballot.
My recommendation: If your favorite candidate is James Arget or Ayeson, vote all your accounts for them, since they have a stretch to make the ballot. Otherwise vote your favorite on your main, but spread out the votes of your other accounts to other wormhole candidates to maximize the number of candidates that make it through to the next round.
Best of luck to all the candidates, and happy voting.