CFC Caldari Ice Interdiction: Final Impacts

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In before CFC is shit post......
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You have congenital genetic defects affecting your mental acuity that extenuate this kind of posting I hope.
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It's not about greek killboards, but procurers have the single highest ehp to cost ratio in the game, and interdicting procrers is very very inefficient.From an interdiction perspective, forcing a downship to procurers might already be considered operation success. Procurers have reduced yield, and are more difficult to multibox due to theif smaller drone bays
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First, I'm not aggressive, you are! Second, I do not owe any explanation to anyone's demands simply because there could easily be none. Asking questions about something does not mean it's a fact, just that it might be. Apologetic is my impression, please allow me to have one like you're allowing yourself to have many. I'm abnoxious, you are pissed - is it because you're a Goon and interdiction is about Goons? I mean, I don't even care to present some great truth here, to me it was just so obvious and still is.
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Expressing an opinion is all well and good but you have to have some grounds to base it on. You have none, and therefore Angry Mustache called you out on it.
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I did mention there are considerable stockpiles out there generated in the pre-Odyssey period. Until those stocks burn off, the price is going to be depressed until those stocks wash out. If the CFC was successful in shutting down new production for a month, I think they stood a chance to flush a lot of those stockpiles out of warehouses. Unfortunately, with the spike being as short as it was, I think very little was actually flushed out.
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Reported!
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No wonder those graphs felt familiar: JMP.
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Made a few bill in profits thx to this!
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This is why I love this game so much. You can separate the wheat from the chaff. Everybody loves _smart_ miners ;)
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Where can I read about your blackbird harassing a whole coalition?
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Oh so it isn't an interdiction on a market scale but just killboard padding then? I mean, it's not like you get hull price as a bounty or anything.I mean, let's call a duck a duck here. You either are A)Trying to affect the market to sell stockpiles, or B)Trying to make an impact to your isk efficiency.Not to say you can't do both, but I don't like to see inconsistency in saying one thing then using another thing as a justification.It just seems wrong (of course, I am a newb still so there is that).
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That's true. But I do not see 320,000 units of ice instead of 490,000 units of ice being sold as being an economic difference.(*edit* That seems odd, yes it makes a difference but I don't think it makes a big enough difference to be an economic shift in a long enough term to offload a stockpile).Although you have a point that selling more procurers instead of mackinaws or retrievers would affect the industrialists who make barges. But most likely in a negative way.Wouldn't you WANT more squishy ships in the field to further pad your stats if that's the idea?I for one would not want people to ship down if they are my targets. All hunters want fat game, not skinny.
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While I don't agree, I appreciate and see the validity your explanation. Thanks for making it.
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Th thing is though there were plenty of times where the were 40+ of us sitting around doing nothing, waiting for people to find juicy targets. We should have instead been hitting the procs and skiffs then. I mean we were throwing 20 people at a mack at one point just for the fun of it. Lack of numbers wasn't an issue at first. I was there for the first week or so, but after sitting around for 4 hours each night getting in on only 3 or 4 kills, I was bored stiff. We spent way too much time searching for juicy targets.If we'd instead focused on the goal - empty the belts of miners - more miners would have thought twice about it. I know procurers are cheap, but getting it blown up, then getting podded encourages you to go elsewhere. If you know you are going to be ignored, you're likely to stay in Caldari space for the increased per unit prices. By targeting only the KB green ships, all we did was force a change in ship type, rather than force the miners out of Caldari space, which was the goal.Next time there's an interdiction, if we don't hit the procurers then it will be even less effective than this one.
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The smartest miners are the ones who didn't need the interdiction to use the tankier barges.
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Work has me in JMP a lot lately. Thought I'd transfer some of my new skills to better graphs. Powerful, yes... but a massive pain.
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Actually the smartest ones can calculate risk/reward and realise that with enough tank to survive a solo catalyst the odds are very good that the increased mining yield from a Mackinaw will earn back the hull price long before it gets ganked. Obviously that doesn't apply when there's an organised group specifically looking to gank you, such as during hulkageddons, interdictions or if the New Order or Gevlon are operating in your area, but generally in those cases you're better off relocating a Mackinaw than switching to a tankier barge. The exceptions are hisec-wide ganking campaigns (unless you can relocate to quiet sov null, in which case why were you in hisec at all?) or if an interdiction skews the prices enough that the reduced yield of the skiff/proc mining interdicted materials is worth more than a mack elsewhere mining regular stuff (and this interdiction failed to do that).
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The price did not rise because they picked a bad time for this operation. Had it been in March it'd have a lot more impact. If you kill 35% of the mined units but players are 35% less because it's some crappy summer month, you don't see results.
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"Though the end results of the CFC Interdiction fell short of its economic goals, it's important to note that when the CFC announces these operations, the market responds sharply"I know you were busy elsewhere but you need to get more results.Otherwise you get a "cry wolf" effect, lose credibility and the next times people won't rush and buy stock in fear and prices won't budge => failed market manipulation.
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The "nearly microscopic" difference is about 10%, not counting the bonus from the retriever spending less time warping to/from belts due to the larger ore bay.I could be wrong - and if the numbers exist somewhere to prove me wrong, by all means point me to them - but I actually think that it's pretty unlikely for most Rets to die before mining at least 300 mil ISK worth of ore/minerals unless the pilot is mining in one of the hotspots I've mentioned earlier. At that point the 10% extra yield has paid for replacing the whole ship + basic fitting; it's justified its choice over a Proc at that point even if it then dies, and if it lives longer it will earn more than a proc would have even if the ret dies and needs replacing.At the end of the day it's the bottom line that matters more than the lifespans of the ships; if it pays for its replacement and earns as much or more than the alternative as well, it was the better choice.

Last month, the CFC announced their plans to interdict Caldari ice.  Spearheaded by GSF’s Ministry of Love, the CFC looked to repeat their infamous Gallente ice interdiction in 2011.  But what are the real goals of the operation, and what were the effects on EVE?

For the unfamiliar, Caldari ice is particularly important to fuel industrial towers.  Unfortunately, with Caldari capital ships regarded as worst of all the races, the consumption used as capital ship fuel is much lower than Gallente or Amarr ice.  Lastly, much of the CFC’s controlled territory in null sec has Caldari ice.

The Goals

Ministry of Love’s main goal in any of their operations is to harvest carebear tears and generate big carebear kills.  Whether they are running normal freighter ganks in regional chokepoints or big public ops like Burn Jita, the goal is incredibly simple: wreak havoc.

But it would be short selling the CFC leadership to believe that the goal of such an ambitious interdiction would purely be to generate tears as they “burn highsec”.  Where Burn Jita may hope to break even with freighter loot, mining ships aren’t going to drop anything epic (except when they do), and a sustained interdiction is costly.  The impetus of this interdiction is primarily economic.

Odyssey changed the way ice was seeded into the game, bottlenecking supply so that “Empire can only generate 80% of fuel demand”.  When the changes were announced, there was a sharp and sustained price spike thanks to speculation; when the patch hit, prices dropped and did not recover to their pre-patch levels.  This interdiction was meant to push the price up so friends who stockpiled Nitrogen Isotopes could get their payout.  If the price spike was sustained long enough, this would drive stockpiles to be burned up and hopefully reset the price to a new normal.  

With these two goals, the CFC stood to issue a one-two punch to the whole community. Where carebears might suffer directly, the effects of a significant hike in fuel costs would ripple through much of the T2 market as well, raising the prices of moon materials and final T2 products.  Liquidating stockpiles for a big personal pay day would not hurt either.

Military: Victory

Frankly, the bar to mark the ice interdiction as a military success is not very high.  If miners die, generate funny chat logs, and the killboard racks up a big juicy number, the op is a rousing success.  

In the first week of the operation, CFC saw a lot of action and excitement in roaming into highsec and killing as many miners as they could find.  Fresh off the Fountain campaign and largely bored, this ice interdiction served to provide content for the organization as a whole.  It also serves to reinforce GSF’s reputation as extraordinary trolls, preying on the “fat pubbies” of highsec.  

Unfortunately, the next week, the CFC also announced their deployment to Delve to take that space.  Given the choice between null PVP and highsec griefing, the interdiction lost a lot of its steam.  By the time the Delve campaign was wrapping up, the interdiction was largely forgotten by the general membership, with only Miniluv working on sustaining a rather wide spread interdiction.  

Electrical engineer by day, hard core industrial player, 10th level black belt with a spreadsheet, and aspiring app developer by night. Can be found in the #tweetfleet as @HLIBindustry